← HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-7-0
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1248
· median 1226
· range 1151–1368
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1174
Q3 1371
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
